On my Facebook Feed the Zionist Union Won – The Israeli Elections and Reality of Winning and Losing

Mina Tzemach the iconic Israeli pollster who has been covering the sport of national elections in this country for over thirty years woke up this morning as surprised as every other Israeli. The Likud and Benjamin Netanyahu who had been trailing in the polls and tied by the time we went to bed had declared victory by 6am Israel time with 31 seats. The Zionist Union tied at 27 according to the polls was counted in at 24.

Polls like our Facebook feeds are a playground of virtual reality. We aren’t really seeing the whole picture, just a slice of what our friends, colleagues or even algorithms in tune with our tweets think we want to be seeing. And let’s admit it – we want to show the best of ourselves, the rosy nice side, not our fears, not what’s making life hard, not the other side of reality.  And that is where the polls and our expectations failed.

Where elections and politics are as avidly watched as soccer, and voting a place of pride - taking part in the exit polls or the “Midgam” as its known is almost as exciting as voting itself. Camil Fuchs the statistician for popular Channel 10 news said that nearly 30% of those asked refused to answer and that when he woke up in the morning to the actual results “I nearly died.”  Analysis of the failed polls indicates that a higher number of voters didn’t want to reveal whose ballot they placed in the envelope. The question is why? Israelis are the least private people I know – they love to talk and tell you how things are –how much they make and how much they’re in debt. So why mum now when polling?

When doing a post mortem on the actual results and compare these elections to 2013 some the conflicted Israeli national conscience doesn’t give us much either:

·      In 2013 the combination of the Right wing parties of Netanyahu’s Likud, Bennett’s Jewish Home and Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu gave us 43 seats.  In 2015 they have 44

·      Centrist parties in the last election were Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, Hatnua under Livni and Kadima with27 seats. This time the two centrist tickets of Yesh Atid and new flavor of the month Kulanu with Likud defectors under Kahalon gave us 20 seats to swing around the coalition merry go round.

·      The Left, which in the last elections held 21 seats with Labor and Meretz, now has 28 and the Arab parties that ran under a joint ticket this time were up 4 seats.

So the right made no great gains with one seat, the centre lost seats along with the ultra orthodox parties and the Arab parties are up 3 and the left up 7.  Huh?

There really isn’t a winner here. In part because each of the leading sides made their message one that was virtual and didn’t address the reality of the country they wish to lead.  For Netanyahu it was ramped up fears of security – distanced from the certainty that each time the country goes to war there is and will never be a decisive winner – only a continued conflict. He went as far to appeal to the masses of Israeli voters to come out as the “Arabs are being driven to the polls by left wing NGO’s”. In what democracy would denigrating a particular group its of citizens exercising their right to vote be presented as a threat and be tolerated? He went further to try and seal the deal by declaring that there will be no Palestinian state. Offering voters more of the same torpor of being stuck in a heightened state of waiting for the next axe or in this case missile attack to fall. All of this to be one seat ahead from the last round?

The Zionist Union made significant gains but without much in content reality. While Netanyahu avoided the economy and domestic issues, the joint slate of Livni and Herzog left that messaging to its fellow parties of the Left (Meretz) and party members on the (Stav Shaffir) rather them offering it up themselves. Their own stance became beyond being the “alternative” to Bibi with “ of us or him”, which turned into “them or me”. Not enough to move Israelis tired for change but also used to living with more “have not’s” than haves in a land of gross disparities. Israelis have notoriously lived beyond the “minus” for years because the idea of being in the black with fair pay and an affordable standard of living is almost as elusive as a peace process. New York Times Paul Krugman sadly offered,  “At this point Israel may be the most unequal society in the advanced world”.

So who won? While some called it a "win" for the Arab parties, it remains to be seen if they are even willing to join a left of centre coalition. With 71% turnout the winners should have been the electorate in getting the vote out in spite of its cynicism towards its politicians (up 66% from 2013). However even increased by their numbers the electoral threshold of 3.25% and the system that allows 26 parties to run meant that there is no defining voice of the people in what is not laden with fear rather than leadership that offers change. No wonder no one wanted to answer a poll - it was easier to just post "I voted" on your Facebook feed. Albert Einstein once said, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Maybe how we vote, and not just who we vote for needs to change.